Where unrealistic optimism becomes problematic is, for example, in the areas of personal health.
#Unrealistic optimism examples drivers#
Ninety percent of drivers believe their driving skills are above-average 94% of professors at a large university believed they were above-average professors and most newlyweds believe their chances of divorcing are near zero (even though 50% of marriages end in divorce). Even though the students understand that only 10% of the class will be in the top decile and only 50% of the class will be in the top five deciles-these students are MBAs and get the basic math- typically less than 5% of the class believes its grade will fall below the median and more than 50% believes its final grade will fall in the top two deciles!Įxamples of this type abound. Before the class begins, Thaler has his students fill out a survey that invites them to predict in which decile their final grade for the course will fall.
Thaler offers an example from his class in Managerial Decision Making.
What Is Unrealistic Optimism?Įven when faced with the statistical likelihood of failure or mediocrity, individual humans persist-predictably-in believing themselves the exception to these statistics. Read more about unrealistic optimism and how it affects decisions. Even when probability indicates otherwise, people usually believe they’re the exception. Unrealistic optimism is the way that people assume that things will work out in their favor.
What is unrealistic optimism? Is it problematic? Like this article? Sign up for a free trial here. Shortform has the world's best summaries of books you should be reading. This article is an excerpt from the Shortform summary of "Nudge" by Richard H.
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